Who Will Win the White House?

The conclusion of what will go down as the most absurd election in America is fewer than two weeks away. The year and a half journey leading up to election will end in a week and a half. Some of the students at Lake Howell will have the ability to influence this election, but all will be profoundly affected by it. Silverhawks will enter college, the bridge between basic education and the application of education, under the tenure of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Few of are joyed by that fact, but this article will not be discussing the implications of a candidate’s residency in the White House. This article will be determining which of the candidates will call the White House their home come January.

At this point in the election cycle, all three debates have occurred. Therefore, time most suitable to predict the outcome of the election is now. Presidential forecasts all have one thing in common: Hillary Clinton wins. The New York Times, USA Today, CNN, and BBC all have Clinton above Trump in recent national polls. In eight out of the nine most recent polls observed by RealClearPolitics, Clinton leads Trump nationally. The margin of her lead varies from nine points over Trump, to as little as a single point, but she still leads. Fivethirtyeight.com projects Clinton’s currrent chance of winning at 84.5 percent based on the breakdown of state polling. What is most remarkable about this data is that exactly one month ago, when the first presidential debate took place, Clinton had an estimated 54.8 percent chance of winning. After the first debate, and through the second, her chance of winning skyrocketed. This percentage is expected to drop as Election Day approaches, but the message is clear; to the American people, Hillary Clinton won the first debate. She employed a  greater sense of restraint and composure than Trump. Regardless of one’s position on the policies, most can admit Trump has failed to eloquently audition for the presidency. The momentum carried through to the second debate because, once again, Clinton outperformed her opponent (not to mention the video leak depicting a very lewd and very unpresidential Trump). The third debate has not changed either of their standings in the long run, and only the impending arrival of Election Day can coerce a fluctuation in the polls.

A far more interesting, and more reliable, method of discerning who will win this game of votes is by taking into account the Electoral College. 538 electoral votes are up for grabs, and 270 are needed for the victory. Following the pattern set by the national polls, the projections of these votes declare Clinton as the winner. This is expected, considering she has taken a slight lead in the two most important battleground states: Florida and Ohio. But what is truly fascinating about these projections is the way she wins. Based on the most up-to-date polling data per state, both 270towin.com and RealClearPolitics discover that even if she lost every battleground state—including Florida and Ohio—Clinton would still gain enough electoral votes to clench the presidency. She would win by two electoral votes even if Trump could win every battleground state, something that is nearly impossible. Even more incredible is the forecast by fivethirtyeight should states swing to the candidate that they are currently leaning towards; Clinton would win with three hundred and thirty two electoral votes—the exact same number of votes President Obama received. For the first time ever, it seems that the White House will be headed by a matriarch.

By Ryan Hill

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